It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. Important Disclaimers The content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. Inflation figures from China and Fed speeches will be the focal points on Thursday.Ī hawkish Fed Chair Powell and weaker-than-expected inflation numbers would support a drop below the $0.63854 support level.Ī 14-period Daily RSI reading of 51.39 suggests a move through the $0.64900 resistance level before entering overbought territory (typically above 70 on the RSI scale). The AUD/USD sat below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish price signals.Ī break above the 50-day EMA would support a move to the $0.64900 resistance level. A dovish Fed could counter the dovish RBA rate hike and support an AUD/USD move toward $0.66. A weakening US labor market would support bets on an end to the rate hike cycle and a June 2024 Fed rate cut. Near-term trends hinge on Fed forward guidance and the US labor market.

An affirmation that labor market conditions have softened sufficiently to end the Fed rate hike cycle would drive demand for the AUD/USD.įOMC non-voting members Thomas Barkin and Raphael Bostic will also deliver speeches. Since the FOMC press conference, unit labor costs and the US Jobs Report reflected a weakening US labor market. However, views on the labor market, inflation, and the Fed rate path need consideration. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell avoided monetary policy. A downward trend in spending would ease demand-driven inflation.īeyond the economic indicators, Fed Chair Powell and FOMC member speeches also need consideration. Labor market uncertainty and a downward trend in disposable income may force consumers to curb spending. Softer labor market conditions could ease wage growth and impact consumer confidence. A spike in jobless claims could further ease bets on a Fed rate hike and fuel expectations of a June Fed rate cut.Įconomists forecast initial jobless claims to increase from 117k to 118k in the week ending November 4. On Thursday, US jobless claims will be in focus. Jobless Claims and Fed Chair Powell in the Spotlight The Australian dollar fell to a low of $0.64013 before rising to a high of $0.64151 upon the release of the inflation numbers. Australian private consumption contributes over 50% to the Australian economy. Weak demand would also affect the labor market and private consumption. Australian trade-related jobs make up 20% of the workforce. Weak demand from China would impact the Australian economy and the Aussie Dollar. Australia has a trade-to-GDP ratio above 50%. Notably, China accounts for one-third of Australian exports. Firms cut prices to win contracts in a weak demand environment. Economists forecast producer prices to decline by 2.7%.Ī less marked than expected decline in producer prices eased fears of a weakening demand environment. Producer prices fell by 2.6% year-over-year in October after falling by 2.7% in September. However, producer prices also needed consideration. Economists forecast consumer prices to fall by 0.2%.įalling consumer prices could signal lackluster demand and weak consumption. Consumer prices declined by 0.2% year-over-year in October after stalling in September.

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